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ARMS SCANDALS COULD AFFECT U.S. POSITION ON BOSNIAN MUSLIMS

Date Added: Wednesday, October 30th, 2002
Contributed by: RCN Administrator
Governments in Belgrade and Sarajevo are moving quickly to limit the potential fallout from revelations earlier this week that state-run Bosnian Serb company Orao was selling spare military parts to Iraq through a Yugoslav company called Yugoimport.

First, the federal government of Bosnia-Herzegovina announced a total ban on all arms imports and exports late on Oct. 29, the BBC reported. The same evening, top Yugoslav and Serbian ministers, including Yugoslav President Vojislav Kostunica, announced the formation of a state commission to review the country’s "foreign economic affairs in the field of arms production," Yugoslavia’s Beta news agency reports. Both countries also had previously fired ministers and company officials tied to the scandal.

The U.S. response so far has varied, with Washington showing more acceptance of Belgrade’s efforts compared to Sarajevo’s. The different responses likely are driven by the two primary concerns now occupying Washington’s mind: Iraq and Islamic extremists. Serbian connections with Iraq are largely historical, and their ties have been declining over the last few years as Belgrade has worked more closely with the United States.

For Bosnia-Herzegovina, however, the connections with Iraq and other Islamic extremists appear more recent and might end up being much more substantial -- and therefore of greater concern to the United States and its allies.

These concerns, fed by a vibrant secret arms trade and the presence of Islamic radicals in Muslim parts of Bosnia, could lead Washington to view the government in Sarajevo with increasing wariness. As a result, a significant paradigm shift could occur for U.S. policy in the Balkans, raising the stature of ethnic Serbs above that of largely Muslim Bosnians for the first time since the early 1990s.

State Department spokesman Richard Boucher made an interesting distinction Oct. 29 when he addressed Sarajevo and Belgrade’s initial responses to the Iraq arms scandal. Boucher praised Belgrade for relieving some government officials of their positions, closing Yugoimport’s offices in Baghdad and adopting "appropriate measures to regulate the transfer of military weapons and technology." Boucher welcomed what he termed these "significant and serious actions," and said, "We have offered the full support and cooperation to the Yugoslav authorities … to develop mechanisms to control military and sensitive exports."

Boucher was less sanguine in his statements regarding Bosnia-Herzegovina, saying, "The U.S. expects the relevant authorities in Bosnia-Herzegovina, and particularly the Republika Srpska, to conduct a thorough investigation and to hold accountable those responsible, regardless of the seniority or position." He also welcomed the firing of company and government officials but noted that "more needs to be done."

Washington’s view of Belgrade and Sarajevo vis-à-vis the arms sales issue is likely to diverge further. For one, the U.S. government has made it clear it suspects that more relationships exist between Bosnian companies and Iraq, and it will be looking for evidence of further ties. Washington does not seem to harbor the same concerns with Yugoslavia. But the divergence also has to do with history.

Yugoslavia’s political and military connections with Iraq were substantial during former President Slobodan Milosevic’s rule. According to Yugoslav government sources, Iraqi military attaches were very active in Belgrade prior to Milosevic’s fall, and though the exact nature of that activity is unclear, the most logical explanation is that Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein -- anticipating future problems with the United States -- sought to learn from Yugoslavia’s experience in the Kosovo war, particularly its air defense strategies.

Substantial knowledge might have been transferred. But with its depleted military, Yugoslavia was not in a position to provide Iraq with substantial or advanced enough arms to affect the military balance between Washington and Baghdad.

These connections have declined steadily since the late 1990s, particularly as Milosevic loyalists have been purged from the Yugoslav military. Under heavy Western pressure, the post-Milosevic leadership in Belgrade -- including Kostunica and Serb Prime Minister Zoran Djindjic -- also cracked down on official government connections with Iraq that carry over into business. More recently, Belgrade also began sharing its intelligence on Iraq with the United States. The fact that Yugoimport was involved as an intermediary, while embarrassing to Belgrade, likely was a factor of history and personal enrichment, and had little to do with deeper bilateral relationships.

At the same time that the West was pressuring Yugoslavia, NATO forces and Western intelligence kept a very close eye on Republika Srpska, leading to the discovery of the ongoing deal with Baghdad. By comparison, the West has been less concerned about the Bosnian Muslims, who continued to be viewed as victims from the Balkan wars. But that view might be changing.

Informed sources in Austria tell Stratfor that emissaries from the Bosnian federal government have visited the Middle East and met with Iraqi government officials. These sources speculate that those secret, infrequent meetings in various Persian Gulf countries are connected to arms trades.

Interpol sources also confirmed to Stratfor the existence of extensive arms-trade cooperation between federal Bosnian entities -- linked through closely controlled companies -- and entities in Iraq. These sources indicate that these connections, which include transfers of aircraft and tank parts, grenade launchers and mortars, are much larger than deals coming from Republika Srpska. Bosnian arms traders successfully have captured much of the regional arms trade, and these traders wield significant influence in Sarajevo.

This story is still being told, and clarity is not a hallmark of Balkan politics. But the more links Washington makes between Sarajevo and Baghdad, the more concerned it will be about possible connections with Islamic extremists, including al Qaeda. And those concerns could fundamentally change U.S. policy toward the Balkans.Results Page:

TEARS AS SREBRENICA SURVIVORS REUNITE

Date Added: Wednesday, July 10th, 2002
Contributed by: RCN Administrator

Thousands of people have been gathering at a field near the Bosnian town of Srebrenica for a ceremony marking the largest single atrocity in the Bosnian war. Men and boys were taken away and executed, including my parents and my brother.

About 7,000 Muslim men were killed by Bosnian Serb forces as they attempted to flee the town in July 1995. There were emotional scenes as relatives of the dead gathered at the field in the village of Potocari. The commemoration comes amid renewed tension in the Serbian part of Bosnia - where Srebrenica is located.

The BBC’s Matthew Price in Potocari says women wearing traditional dresses and headscarves handed flowers to each other. Many wiped the tears from their eyes and some fainted.  A symbolic headstone is to be unveiled in the field. The site is due to be turned into a burial ground for the victims later this year.

Tight security is in place: Around 2,000 members of the local police force are on duty. Road blocks have been set up across the area. The commemoration is held every year, but our correspondent says there is more potential for tension this year. In recent days two Serbs indicted for war crimes - Miroslav Deronjic, 47, and Radovan Stankovic, 33 - have been arrested and sent to the international criminal tribunal in The Hague.

Since last year’s commemoration, Bosnian Serb General Radislav Krstic has been convicted of genocide for his role in the Srebrenica massacre - he received a 46-year prison sentence in August 2001. But the top Bosnian Serb genocide suspects - former President Radovan Karadzic and army chief Ratko Mladic - remain at large. Both have been indicted in connection with the Srebrenica massacre and other atrocities committed during the Bosnian war.

Since last year, fresh details have also emerged about the international community’s failure to protect the civilians of Srebrenica. But when Serb forces advanced in July 1995 the lightly-armed Dutch peacekeepers were unable to stop them. In April, an official Dutch report on the massacre blamed the country’s government, military officials and the United Nations for failing to prevent the atrocity. The Dutch cabinet and the head of the country’s army resigned as a result.

"The Dutch battalion soldiers and officers ordered all the refugees who were inside their base to leave the base," Hasan Nuhanovic, a survivor who was then an interpreter for the UN, remembers.

"All the 6,000 refugees were handed over to the Serb troops and all the men and boys among these people were taken away and executed, including my parents and my brother," he says.

"I couldn’t believe it was happening to my family."

The bodies of many of those killed at Srebrenica - perhaps around 4,000 - remain in storage in the nearby town of Tuzla, where the process of formally identifying the dead continues.

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