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www.stratfor.com -- Bahraini authorities promised Aug. 27 to grant nationality to an estimated 10,000 stateless residents, mainly Shiite Muslims, living in the Gulf state, Agence France-Presse reported. The decree was in part an attempt to pacify opposition to a June decision by the Sunni-led government to grant dual citizenship to all Gulf Cooperation Council nationals in a bid to bolster Bahrain’s Sunni population and dilute the Shiite majority’s electoral power prior to Oct. 24 parliamentary polls.

The GCC comprises Bahrain, Oman, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and the predominantly Sunni states Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. The elite Sunnis in those countries are the most likely to apply for dual citizenship, and the Bahraini government has the power to vet applicants to ensure that mainly Sunnis receive approval before the elections.

The plan has not sat well with Bahrain’s Shiite Muslims, 100 of whom protested against the measure in June. Shiites account for 70 percent of the tiny island’s approximately 645,000 people, and they oppose measures that might upset their demographic advantage in the elections.

Shiites have fought for years for a greater political role in the country, with violent clashes that have left dozens of people dead since 1994. Their perception of the fairness of the October elections -- in which they are expected to make major gains -- will have an immediate impact on Bahrain’s continued stability.

Political unrest in the country could radiate throughout the Persian Gulf and would be especially destabilizing for American forces in the region. Manama serves as home for the U.S. 5th Fleet, which is responsible for all U.S. naval operations in the Gulf. Violent protests and clashes between American military personnel and Bahraini residents -- such as in May when two U.S. soldiers and one of the soldier’s wives were wounded after a mob attacked them in a mainly Shiite neighborhood -- already have heightened security concerns in the country.

The granting of citizenship to 10,000 mainly Shiites will be a major boost to that group’s numbers. It will help keep tension contained and act as a bridge-building measure with a group that is poised to take advantage of its huge numbers in the country to win a majority in one parliament chamber in October. The elections are the first since 1973 and represent a major shift in the country’s political structure.

Last February Bahrain transformed itself from a sheikhdom into a constitutional monarchy in order to allow room for more political participation by the Shiite majority. But the Sunnis are loath to give up power, and with the Shiites presenting a major challenge, they have taken recent steps to dilute the power of a Shiite-dominated parliament.

Bahrain leader Sheik Hamad bin Isa al Khalifa has already announced his intention to create a second chamber of parliament that would also have legislative powers and whose members will be appointed by the king. Manama will also try to co-opt the Shiite opposition leadership, as it is currently holding talks with the National Action Movement, one of the largest Shiite political parties in the country.